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China & U.S. War Scenarios

Date: 07-18-04
Host: Art Bell
Guests: Charles R. Smith

Cyber-war columnist Charles R. Smith presented various war scenarios that he believes could occur between the U.S. and China. He suggested that if China decided to attack Taiwan in an attempt to reclaim the land, the U.S. would likely become involved. For instance, he said China might launch a missile strike against Taiwan, set up a blockade around the country, and then target American aircraft carriers with satellite technology, which would lead to an acceleration of conflict.

Smith also discussed various outcomes and strategies that might be played out in a nuclear exchange between the two countries. In the case of China destroying Los Angeles and Hawaii with nukes, the US would certainly retaliate, but he said instead of just a massive "waste 'em all" response, America might choose an "Option B" approach which would involve "precise strikes," some non-nuclear, aimed at China's leadership.

He is not convinced that the counter-scenario of "engagement theory," i.e. America's active role in pumping up China's economy through trading, is serving as an effective discouragement to war. We have taken China from "agrarian communism," to a "fascist regime," he commented. Smith's new book "Deception," due out in the fall, will chronicle military deals and the sale of American technology to countries such as China.

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