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Betting on the Future

Betting on the Future

A rise in online prediction markets is allowing people to bet on far more than just sports outcomes, and it turns out that these markets have a penchant for accuracy. For instance, the Iowa Electronic Markets(1) is said to routinely outperform polls in the case of national elections.
Other markets such as the Hollywood Stock Exchange(2) allow participants to speculate on how well various entertainment endeavors will perform. "The driving force behind prediction markets," writes Bill Saporito in a recent Time Magazine article(3) is "information aggregation," which can benefit from outsider perspectives, unbiased views, and insider tips.

1. http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/
2. http://www.hsx.com/
3. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1118373,00.html

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