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Flawed Mathematical Models

First Half: Grant Cameron, who has for decades dedicated himself to researching what American presidents have known about the UFO phenomena, has reached the conclusion that presidents' denying knowledge is just a cover, and that they actually have known and do know the truth. Cameron joined George Knapp to discuss how the Clintons have been the most open about their handling of the mystery and the role of Clinton's campaign manager.

Second Half: Christopher Mellon spent nearly 20 years in the federal government serving in various national security positions. For the first time, he has spoken publicly about his experiences within government as they relate to UFOs. He discussed his experiences in the intelligence community and his belief that there is no organized coverup, but simply a strong reluctance to deal with the subject.

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Flawed Mathematical Models

Show Archive
Date: Sunday - January 28, 2007
Host: Art Bell
Guests: Orrin Pilkey

Duke University Professor Dr. Orrin Pilkey discussed how unquestioned faith in mathematical models can misrepresent future situations and lead to unmanageable plans. Quantitative models that predict where, when, and how much, are typically inaccurate, and can lead to bad decisions, he outlined.

For instance, the plan to dispose of nuclear waste in Yucca Mountain in Nevada tries to look ahead one million years and presupposes that it may fail someday with leakage into the groundwater.

A better way to look at such issues, he argued, is the qualitative model, which asks how, why, and what if. Considering various contingencies can offer more flexibility in long-term solutions. For instance, in Sweden nuclear waste is buried 1,000 ft. underwater, with the possibility in mind, that over long stretches of time, another ice age may hit the area. Pilkey also addressed how global climate change, AIDS and other issues are hampered by quantitative models.

Bumper Music

Bumper music from Sunday January 28, 2007