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Flawed Mathematical Models

Earthfiles investigative reporter Linda Moulton Howe shared reports on the main reason why President John F. Kennedy was killed and what was happening behind the public surface of a political break-in at DNC Headquarters that related to an alien presence; Jim Marrs' hypothesis that the 1% of the power brokers on Earth wish to drastically reduce the world's population; and how a major quake on the Hayward Fault is expected at any time.

In the first hour, author, raw foods chef, and investigative journalist Erin Elizabeth reported on the spate of recent murders, mysterious deaths and disappearances of doctors in the last month, most of whom were found dead in Florida and the Southeast.

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Flawed Mathematical Models

Show Archive
Date: Sunday - January 28, 2007
Host: Art Bell
Guests: Orrin Pilkey

Duke University Professor Dr. Orrin Pilkey discussed how unquestioned faith in mathematical models can misrepresent future situations and lead to unmanageable plans. Quantitative models that predict where, when, and how much, are typically inaccurate, and can lead to bad decisions, he outlined.

For instance, the plan to dispose of nuclear waste in Yucca Mountain in Nevada tries to look ahead one million years and presupposes that it may fail someday with leakage into the groundwater.

A better way to look at such issues, he argued, is the qualitative model, which asks how, why, and what if. Considering various contingencies can offer more flexibility in long-term solutions. For instance, in Sweden nuclear waste is buried 1,000 ft. underwater, with the possibility in mind, that over long stretches of time, another ice age may hit the area. Pilkey also addressed how global climate change, AIDS and other issues are hampered by quantitative models.

Bumper Music

Bumper music from Sunday January 28, 2007

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