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Flawed Mathematical Models

Earthfiles investigative reporter Linda Moulton Howe discussed a new type of astronomical telescope known as the 'Dragonfly' which has discovered a "dark galactic twin of our Milky Way Galaxy;" recent unexplained animal mutilations; and eyewitness testimony of a triangular UFO in Iowa that seemingly sent out telepathic communications.

First hour guest, former C2C host Ian Punnett talked about his new book "A Black Night for the Bluegrass Belle," which details the 1936 murder of his family member Verna Garr Taylor.

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Flawed Mathematical Models

Show Archive
Date: Sunday - January 28, 2007
Host: Art Bell
Guests: Orrin Pilkey

Duke University Professor Dr. Orrin Pilkey discussed how unquestioned faith in mathematical models can misrepresent future situations and lead to unmanageable plans. Quantitative models that predict where, when, and how much, are typically inaccurate, and can lead to bad decisions, he outlined.

For instance, the plan to dispose of nuclear waste in Yucca Mountain in Nevada tries to look ahead one million years and presupposes that it may fail someday with leakage into the groundwater.

A better way to look at such issues, he argued, is the qualitative model, which asks how, why, and what if. Considering various contingencies can offer more flexibility in long-term solutions. For instance, in Sweden nuclear waste is buried 1,000 ft. underwater, with the possibility in mind, that over long stretches of time, another ice age may hit the area. Pilkey also addressed how global climate change, AIDS and other issues are hampered by quantitative models.

Bumper Music

Bumper music from Sunday January 28, 2007

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