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Flawed Mathematical Models - Shows

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Listen with Windows Player
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NOTE: We'll discontinue our Windows Media Audio in August 2015. Subscribers will still be able to listen to the show through our Coast Player in the link above.
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Flawed Mathematical Models

Host Connie Willis (email) was joined by Joseph McMoneagle, known as the best Operational Remote Viewer in the history of the U.S. Army's Special Project-- Stargate. First hour guest, Philadelphia author, Thom Nickels (Amazon page), shared weird stories of the founding fathers of the US, including the secret life of Ben Franklin.

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Flawed Mathematical Models

Show Archive
Date: Sunday - January 28, 2007
Host: Art Bell
Guests: Orrin Pilkey

Duke University Professor Dr. Orrin Pilkey discussed how unquestioned faith in mathematical models can misrepresent future situations and lead to unmanageable plans. Quantitative models that predict where, when, and how much, are typically inaccurate, and can lead to bad decisions, he outlined.

For instance, the plan to dispose of nuclear waste in Yucca Mountain in Nevada tries to look ahead one million years and presupposes that it may fail someday with leakage into the groundwater.

A better way to look at such issues, he argued, is the qualitative model, which asks how, why, and what if. Considering various contingencies can offer more flexibility in long-term solutions. For instance, in Sweden nuclear waste is buried 1,000 ft. underwater, with the possibility in mind, that over long stretches of time, another ice age may hit the area. Pilkey also addressed how global climate change, AIDS and other issues are hampered by quantitative models.

Bumper Music

Bumper music from Sunday January 28, 2007

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