Scientists at Russia's Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology have modeled a potential biological limit to human lifespan based on the accumulation of somatic mutations. These random DNA errors occur as cells divide. Even if medicine could eliminate every other major cause of aging, these mutations would continue accumulating, eventually impairing cells, damaging tissues, and contributing to organ failure. Their models estimate that, with all other aging mechanisms successfully treated, the average human lifespan could reach roughly 146 to 194 years, about twice today's typical life expectancy. In exceptional theoretical cases, the researchers calculate that individuals might survive much longer, potentially as long as 627 years.
The findings suggest that somatic mutations are relatively weak drivers of aging on their own but could ultimately become a limiting factor if other aging processes were overcome. The effects also vary by tissue: skin and liver cells continually replenish themselves, while largely irreplaceable heart and brain cells accumulate mutations over time. Although researchers do not expect such extraordinary lifespans anytime soon, the study raises questions about efforts to radically extend human life, including cellular rejuvenation research and anti-aging initiatives. The researchers emphasize that their findings are not a definitive prediction, but they suggest that medical treatments targeting other aspects of aging alone may never make human immortality possible.